Systematic Threats in Finance and Cognitive Dissonance

In preparation for tomorrow’s New Ways of Knowing I wanted to share some of my thoughts I captured in a PowerPoint to highlight the complications of anticipating systematic risk based on established economic models and the negative impact of cognitive bias in executive decision-making that can make managers blind to said risk.

I hope this spurs a lot of thoughts and discussions.

See you tomorrow!

Embassy Suites Chevy Chase Pavilion Location

Use  Google Maps for directions to our location for the “New Ways of Knowing 2.0″ event. The Chevy Chase Pavilion is at the intersection of Wisconsin Avenue, Western Avenue and Military Road in upper Northwest DC.

There is plenty of parking available (for pay) at the Chevy Chase Pavilion. The Friendship Heights metro station (Red Line) has an entrance adjacent to the Pavilion.

Register for New Ways of Knowing 2.0

I’m happy to report that the SCIP registration link for our upcoming half-day session is now live:

http://www.scip.org/Training/EventsDetail.cfm?itemnumber=6053

Please follow this link to register for the event.  Due to limited room capacity the event will be limited to 50 attendees, so we will close down registration once we have achieved that number.  If we have more than 50 pre-registered attendees we are not going to be able to support walk up attendees on the day.  It’s going to be an exciting and interactive session.  Register today to secure your place.

New Year’s Letter to the SCIP DC Chapter

My fellow SCIP Greater Washington Chapter members,

Happy New Year! I’m glad to write to you today with three updates about steps we are taking to make your local chapter more valuable to each member.

First, I am excited to announce that our chapter has a new co-chair! Jeff Trexel, the CEO of Infoition, has agreed to transition into the role as Chapter Chair. This is an important step for our chapter because new leadership brings new energy and new ideas, and Jeff is already showing an abundance of both. I will continue to support Jeff, and we’re both committed to broadening the opportunities for volunteering and leadership within the chapter. This is an exciting time for the chapter, and we all wish Jeff the best as he takes on this new role. Please join me in welcoming Jeff to his new role.

Next, I want to take this opportunity to introduce the SCIP Greater Washington Chapter blog. Point your web browser to http://www.scipdc.org to share your opinion on the goings-on with the chapter, explore the topics raised in recent programs and interact with the chapter membership. In the coming weeks and months we’ll be adding authors to the blog, and any member or interested party is welcome to comment.

Finally, we are happy to report a successful completion of the recent member survey. Special thanks belong to Denise Baken for all of her efforts to move this survey forward. The survey report and results can be viewed at the SCIP DC blog here: http://scipdc.wordpress.com/2008/12/22/results-of-2008-scip-dc-members-survey/. Here are some of the highlights:

• Chapter members hold diverse roles in their organizations, and the majority of our survey respondents are not full-time CI professionals.
• We have an experienced membership.
• Tuesday at 6:00 PM is the best day and time to hold a chapter meeting.
• Locations in Arlington near metro stations with available parking are the ideal locations to hold meetings.
• Our members are not as satisfied with the chapter as we would like them to be. Hopefully some of these steps we are taking will move us in that better direction. We can’t stress it enough that specific feedback about what you would like to see is welcome. Volunteering to help make the programs you want to see happen is even more welcome.
• We received some great guidance on the kinds of programs you want to see in the future. Expect to see more programs on analytical frameworks, industry-specific events and programs about human source collection. If you know of local speakers on topics of interest please recommend them. We’ve received some great suggestions in the past few months.

The coming months are going to be very exciting ones for the chapter as we transition to our new leadership. Stay tuned and visit the blog often to share your own thoughts and feedback. You can also send questions, comments and inquiries about the chapter to chair@scipdc.org.

All the best,

August Jackson
Greater Washington SCIP Chapter Co-Chair

New Ways of Knowing 2.0: January 28, 2009

Enterprise 2.0, Social Media and the Future of Intelligence and Decision-Making
SCIP Greater Washington Chapter Event

Wednesday, January 28, 2009
12:00 Noon – 5:00 PM EST

Embassy Suites Chevy Chase Pavilion
4300 Military Road, N.W. Washington, DC 20015

Intelligence is at a watershed moment. After decades of developing a profession to collect information and provide early warning, we find ourselves in a broad-reaching financial catastrophe that was unknown or ignored by decision makers. Despite a collection and analysis of economic information, most businesses walked unknowingly into a ruined banking sector, retail distribution on the brink of bankruptcy, housing grotesquely overvalued, American automobiles at the point of extinction – all while most leaders continued to view change as incremental.

This unprecedented current economic crisis seems to represent a failure of intelligence. After all, if intelligence cannot motivate leaders to action, then as professionals we must ask - what good is it? Many analyst voices in the desert warned about the risks in real estate, derivate markets and reliance on leverage, but it’s not clear that this led to action. Are we in our current mess because the leaders in business and government simply didn’t listen? If so, how can intelligence professionals deliver analysis that drives appropriate action?

The next generation of intelligence might solve the inherent weaknesses of Intelligence 1.0 by relying on a broad range of information, focusing on relationships over hierarchy and replacing official dogma with a continuous dialogue. Technology will be a major driver in this evolution: Web 2.0 and social media tools are moving into the mainstream– not just in the consumer space but also in business. 2008 has seen the year of “Enterprise 2.0.” Web 2.0 has gone to work to enable collaboration, smash silos and change business processes. Intelligence analysts have new tools and methods at their disposal for primary research, secondary discovery, collaborative analysis and communicating actionable insight.

“New Ways of Knowing 2.0” will be an interactive educational event in which we will examine the potential of social media to improve the intelligent organization of the future. Participants can expect to teach as much as they learn and see connections among diverse concepts, tools, intelligence practices and business processes. Our panelists will include:

• Suki Fuller, social media maven and CI consultant
• Eric Garland, strategic forecaster, intelligence thoughtleader, author of Future Inc: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s NEXT, and principal of Competitive Futures, Inc.
• August Jackson, market and competitor intelligence analyst and Enterprise 2.0 evangelist at Verizon Business

You will come away with this program with immediate an actionable advice about how you can incorporate Enterprise 2.0 tools into your intelligence processes to improve your ability to adapt to our ever-changing world. Discussions and highlights from the program will be posted to the new SCIP DC chapter blog at http://scipdc.wordpress.com.

Welcome to the new blog for the SCIP Greater Washington Chapter!

We’re happy to announce the availability of this new weblog for the Greater Washington chapter of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals. This will be the public home for discussions of the topics covered in SCIP DC programs and a page for the members of the chapter to share their opinions, plans and keep in touch. Please feel free to comment and ask questions on this site as you see fit.

In the early months of 2009 we will be holding innovative and exciting programs. Watch this space for updates as they become available.